A challenging year with interest rates likely to remain high

Financial markets were weaker across the board in December having ended November on a stronger note. The unwinding of extremely loose monetary policy globally, easy fiscal policy, the invasion of Ukraine by Russia which forced energy prices higher, overhanging supply chain issues and inflation all continued to influence movements across all assets. In November the Australian share market ended on a high and spent December in retreat. The S&P/ASX 200 Total Return Index decreased by 3.21% over the month following the lead from global share markets which decreased 5.49% as represented by the MSCI World Index. Bond and property markets also gave up ground as interest rate rises continued to be front-page news. The US Federal Reserve raised the official interest rate again by 0.5% in December to 4.1% whilst the Reserve Bank of Australia increased our rate another 0.25% to 3.10%. This was the eight month in a row that the RBA hiked. Whilst the RBA has not ruled out further rate hikes there is an expectation by market analysts that the tightening cycle is close to a peak. It may be a bit too soon to forecast a peak in the interest rate cycle, but at the very least, we expect a longish pause by the RBA….

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